India is preparing to increase its imports of Russian oil by 10–20% in September 2025, despite the Trump administration’s imposition of a sweeping 50% U.S. tariff on Indian exports, an economic retaliation tied directly to New Delhi’s continued reliance on Moscow’s discounted crude. Traders report that India may boost purchases by 150,000–300,000 barrels per day, underscoring the resilience of Indo-Russian energy ties and New Delhi’s priority on energy security.
Russia has reduced refining capacity following Ukrainian drone attacks, prompting it to offload more crude to foreign markets at even steeper discounts. Indian refiners are capitalizing on these lower prices, Urals crude for September is trading $2–$3 per barrel below Brent, compared to just $1.50 previously, making it an attractive option amid elevated global energy costs.
India now imports around 1.5 million barrels per day of Russian crude, comprising nearly 40% of its oil needs, and making it the largest buyer of seaborne Russian oil globally. Although the U.S. administration has accused India of indirectly fueling Russia’s war machine in Ukraine and imposed punitive tariffs, New Delhi has rebuffed such pressure. Indian officials accuse Western powers of hypocrisy, pointing out that Western countries continue to import Russian goods like uranium and fertilizers without facing similar penalties.
Meanwhile, oil markets are watching closely. While global prices dipped due to easing summer demand in the U.S., supply concerns driven by geopolitical tensions including India’s growing reliance on Russian oil are tempering losses.
India’s move to deepen energy ties with Russia, particularly in defiance of U.S. economic pressure, reflects a broader assertion of strategic autonomy, balancing commitments to both Western alliances and long-standing partnerships with Moscow. Analysts caution, however, that looming changes in EU price caps and U.S. sanctions could disrupt flows arriving after October.
