The relationship between the United States and the European Union has always been marked by both cooperation and tension, but recent policies and agreements suggest that Washington is moving Europe away from its role as a partner and toward a position of dependency. Through trade leverage, defense mandates, energy deals, and political alignment, the U.S. is consolidating the EU into a subordinate bloc, primarily to serve American strategic aims against Russia, China, and the wider BRICS coalition.
Trade Leverage
The July 2025 trade deal between Washington and Brussels reshaped the economic relationship. The agreement introduced a 15% baseline tariff on most European goods entering the U.S., a rate considerably higher than before. For industries such as machinery, chemicals, and consumer goods, this has cut into competitiveness in the American market. Key sectors like steel, aluminum, and copper remain burdened by punitive 50% tariffs, directly undermining Europe’s heavy industries while protecting American producers.
Although the EU managed to secure exemptions for a handful of strategic exports, such as aircraft components, semiconductors, and certain agricultural products, these carve-outs do little to balance the overall equation. Added to this, Brussels was pressured into committing to $750 billion in American energy purchases and $600 billion in U.S. investment deals, effectively locking Europe into long-term dependence on U.S. supply chains.
The broader consequence is that Europe is losing industrial sovereignty. Instead of charting its own economic course, the EU finds itself reshaping its market priorities to suit U.S. needs, a dynamic that increasingly resembles dependency rather than partnership.
NATO’s 5% Defense Mandate
At the June 2025 NATO Summit in The Hague, member states agreed to a historic shift: defense and security spending would rise to 5% of GDP by 2035, up from the traditional 2% guideline. On paper, this was presented as a collective response to new security threats. In practice, it represents a massive transfer of European resources into defense budgets, resources that might otherwise go to innovation, infrastructure, or social programs.
The reality is that much of this spending will not build independent European defense capacity but will flow directly into U.S. military contractors. Between 2020 and 2024, U.S. arms exports to Europe tripled, driven largely by the war in Ukraine and NATO’s demand for rearmament. The United States currently controls 43% of global arms exports, with more than a third going to Europe. In fiscal year 2024 alone, U.S. arms transfers reached $117.9 billion under Foreign Military Sales, nearly half of which went to European customers.
This creates a cycle of dependency: European nations send weapons to Ukraine, depleting their arsenals, and then replace them with U.S.-made systems at inflated costs. Instead of strengthening Europe’s defense autonomy, this policy deepens its reliance on American hardware, training, and strategic direction.
Industrial Exodus and Talent Flight
The U.S. Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) has become a magnet for European industry. With generous subsidies for green technology, manufacturing, and clean energy projects, the IRA has lured companies that once might have expanded in Germany, France, or Italy. High energy costs within Europe, exacerbated by the shift away from Russian supplies make relocation even more appealing. Volkswagen, among others, has already announced expansions in the U.S., raising concerns that Europe’s industrial base is being hollowed out.
This industrial drift is compounded by a talent drain. Highly skilled engineers, AI researchers, and STEM specialists are leaving Europe for the U.S., drawn by higher wages, greater investment, and deeper innovation ecosystems. European tech founders have launched initiatives such as “Project Europe” to counter this migration, but the flow continues. The result is a weakening of Europe’s competitiveness in industries that will define the 21st century.
Aligning Against China
Under mounting U.S. pressure, the EU has adopted increasingly confrontational policies toward China. The push for “de-risking” may sound pragmatic, but in practice it often mirrors Washington’s sanctions and restrictions. This alignment is risky for Europe: China remains one of the EU’s largest trading partners and a crucial market for sectors such as automobiles, machinery, and luxury goods.
European officials warn that if the EU follows Washington too closely, it risks losing vital trade opportunities while shouldering the costs of an economic confrontation that primarily serves U.S. interests. Some analysts caution that Europe could become the economic battleground of U.S.–China rivalry, absorbing damage without shaping the strategic outcome.
Economic Dependence
By 2024, the U.S. had become the EU’s largest goods export market, accounting for 20.6% of exports, alongside €319 billion in services. Yet this trade relationship was far from balanced: the EU ran a €109 billion deficit. In addition, around 5.2 million European jobs now depend directly on U.S. exports, embedding dependency deep into the labor market.
Energy dependency is equally stark. Following the loss of Russian supplies after 2022, Washington stepped in as Europe’s primary provider of gas and oil. The 2025 trade agreement institutionalized this by binding Europe to long-term U.S. energy purchases, further limiting the EU’s flexibility. While global trade expands, Europe’s overreliance on U.S. energy and technology chains narrows its room to maneuver.
