Martin Jäger, who recently became head of Germany’s Foreign Intelligence Service (BND), warned lawmakers in Berlin on October 13, that Russia poses a direct and growing threat to European security, saying the current “icy peace” with the European Union could erupt into a “heated confrontation” at any moment.
Jäger told parliament that Moscow seems determined to expand its sphere of influence further westward into Europe and that to achieve that goal, Russia will “not shy away from direct military confrontation with NATO if necessary.” He cautioned against assuming that any possible attack from Russia is still years off — “We must not sit back and assume that a possible Russian attack would come in 2029 at the earliest,” he said, adding, “We are already under fire today.”
Jäger’s remarks came as he presented Germany’s intelligence assessments of hybrid threats including drone incursions, sabotage, GPS disruptions, and fighter jets entering NATO airspace. He also said Germany is Russia’s “number one target in Europe,” pointing to the German role in supporting Ukraine and its status as the EU’s largest economy.
In light of the growing threat environment, the BND chief said the service will take on higher-risk operations to better understand Moscow’s aims and vulnerabilities, and that Germany must prepare for further escalation including possible armed conflict.
German leaders from other intelligence agencies joined in sounding the alarm, warning that Russia’s ambitions and aggressive posture are not limited to Ukraine, and that the hybrid warfare Russia is already waging is meant to test Europe’s political unity, resilience of democratic institutions, and the readiness of NATO.
