BERLIN — Preliminary data for January to August 2025 show that Germany’s total trade with China reached €163.4 billion, narrowly edging out trade with the United States, which stood at €162.8 billion during the same period.
The shift marks China reclaiming the top spot as Germany’s largest trading partner after the U.S. had taken the lead in 2024 following an eight-year period of Chinese dominance. The change is driven in part by a 7.4 % decline in German exports to the U.S., including steep drops in August, where exports fell 23.5% year-on-year. Meanwhile, although German exports to China dropped by 13.5%, imports from China climbed 8.3 % to €108.8 billion, helping boost the overall trade volume.
The trend raises flags among economists in Germany, who warn of rising dependence on Chinese imports and the risk of competitive pressure on Germany’s manufacturing base. The fact that timing coincides with renewed U.S. tariffs under the Trump administration adds to the concern over deteriorating prospects for German exports to the U.S.
For Germany, Europe’s largest economy and a major exporter of cars, machinery and chemicals, the realignment underscores both the interconnectedness and the fragility of its trade relationships amid shifting global policies. While Berlin has expressed intention to diversify and reduce over-reliance on any single partner, the data indicate how difficult that remains in practice.
